How Darwinist Materialism Has Failed to Accurately Predict Reality

Let us look at how very badly Darwinist materialism has failed to accurately predict reality. To properly understand the failure we can go back to 1859, the year of the publication of Darwin's book "On the Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection, or the Preservation of Favoured Races in the Struggle for Life." We can ask: what did a materialist view of life predict at such a time? 

We should not limit ourselves to particular quotes by materialists saying what would happen. A theory may logically predict something, even if the believers in that theory may not be saying that such a thing will happen. For example, a husband may have the theory that his wife is putting toxic material in his coffee every day.  The same husband may say that he will not be harmed, but that is not what his theory predicts. His theory predicts that he will soon die from poisoning. 

Let us start by looking at what Darwinist materialism predicted around the year 1860, the year after the publication of Darwin's main work. Then we'll look at predictions explicitly made by Darwinist materialists in the 1960's. 

Prediction #1 of Darwinist Materialism, Circa 1860: Life Will Not Be Found to Be Very Much More Physically Organized Than It Was Known to Be in 1860

I do not know of a quote around 1860 in which materialists were predicting that humans will not be found to be much more complex than humans were known to be in 1860. But Darwinist materialism predicted such a thing around 1860.  In a previous post I stated what I called the first rule of accidental construction:

The first rule of accidental construction: the credibility of any claim that an impressively organized final result was accidentally achieved is inversely proportional to the number of parts that had to be well-arranged to achieve such a result, and the amount of organization needed to achieve such a result.

Darwinism is a theory of accidental construction. The more organized and functionally complex living organisms are, the less credible Darwinism is. So if we go by the logical principle that a theory predicts whatever enhances its credibility, it seems fair to say that around 1860 Darwinism predicted that organisms would not be found to be much more complex than they are. 

The reality is the exact opposite of this prediction. We now know that creatures such as humans are a billion times more organized than Darwin ever dreamed. Darwin knew nothing about the enormous organization and complexity of cells and protein molecules and biochemistry. 

Prediction #2 of Darwinist Materialism, Circa 1860: The Universe Will Be Found to Be Something That Has Always Existed 

This idea of an eternal universe was a bedrock tenet of materialists of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. In the eighteenth century the principle atheist writer was Holbach, who asked in his main book, "Is  is  not  evident  that  the  whole  universe  has  not been,  in  its  anterior  eternal  duration,  rigorously  the same  that  it  now  is?"  Holbach wrote this: "Motion,  then,  is  co-eternal  with  matter :  from  all eternity  the  particles  of  the  universe  have  acted  and reacted  upon  each  other,  by  virtue  of  their  respective energies  ;  of  their  peculiar  essences ;  of  their  primitive elements ;  of  their  various  combinations." Later he wrote this: "Matter  has  existed  from  all  eternity, seeing  that  we  cannot  conceive  it  to  have  been  capable of  beginning."  Holbach and  atheists of the nineteenth century believed that the universe had existed forever, an idea that conveniently allowed them to dispose of any idea of a divine creation. 

This prediction was falsified around the 1960's, when the evidence started to pile up that the universe had a sudden beginning about 13 billion years ago, in the event called the Big Bang. 

Prediction #3 of Darwinist Materialism, Circa 1860: Vast Numbers of Intermediate Fossils Will Be Found, Showing the Transition Between Each Major Type of Life

According to Darwinism, there must have been innumerable intermediate life forms between the known species discovered in natural history.  Darwin knew that the great majority of such fossil intermediates had not been found. But he predicted that they would be found, by further work of paleontologists.  But the prediction was not fulfilled. Here is how the situation is described by two scientists.

• “Charles Darwin, in edition after edition of his great masterpiece, railed against the fossil record. The problem was not his theory but the fossil record itself. Because of this, paleontology became an ever-greater embarrassment to the Keepers of Evolutionary Theory. By the 1940s and '50s this embarrassment only heightened. Yet data are data; it is the interpretation that changed. By the mid-twentieth century, the problem posed by fossils was so acute it could no longer be ignored: The fossil record, even with a century of collecting after Darwin, still did not support Darwinian views of how evolution took place. The greatest twentieth century paleontologist, George Gaylord Simpson, in midcentury had to admit to a reality of the fossil record: 'It remains true, as every paleontologist knows, that most new species, genera, and families, and that nearly all new categories above the level of families, appear in the record suddenly, and are not led up to by known, gradual, completely continuous transitional sequences.' " --"Lamarck's Revenge” by paleontologist Peter Ward , page 43. 
• "Major transitions in biological evolution show the same pattern of sudden emergence of diverse forms at a new level of complexity. The relationships between major groups within an emergent new class of biological entities are hard to decipher and do not seem to fit the tree pattern that, following Darwin's original proposal, remains the dominant description of biological evolution. The cases in point include the origin of complex RNA molecules and protein folds; major groups of viruses; archaea and bacteria, and the principal lineages within each of these prokaryotic domains; eukaryotic supergroups; and animal phyla. In each of these pivotal nexuses in life's history, the principal 'types' seem to appear rapidly and fully equipped with the signature features of the respective new level of biological organization. No intermediate 'grades' or intermediate forms between different types are detectable." -- Biologist Eugene Koonin, "The Biological Big Bang model for the major transitions in evolution" (link).

Prediction #4 of Darwinist Materialists Circa 1860: All the Talk About "Spiritual Manifestations" Occurring Around 1860 Will Soon Fizzle Out, With the Accounts Never Being Scientifically Substantiated

At the time Darwinism was introduced around 1859, England and America were abuzz with reports of inexplicable spiritual manifestations.  The story of what happened is told in my "Spookiest Years" series of posts that you can read  here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here,  here, here, 

here, and here. The reports had started in 1848 in the US in Hydesville, New York.  Around 1860 the reports of spiritual manifestations were seeming to get more and more dramatic, and more and more common. 

What did materialists predict about these type of reports, around 1860? They predicted that the reported phenomena would kind of "fizzle out," and never be scientifically substantiated.  But the opposite happened. 

The reports of spiritual manifestations and paranormal powers continued for many decades. In 1871 after years of scientific  investigation the London Dialectical Society issued its long report (which can be read here) summarizing its findings. To the consternation of local residents such as Darwin and Huxley, the report found decisively in favor of the reality of many of the paranormal phenomena that Darwinists had assured us were impossible.  The work of the committee is summarized in my post here. 

In the 1870's the world-class physicist Sir William Crookes bravely decided to give the matter his full attention. He did the most careful investigations of some of the most spectacular paranormal phenomena. He found decisively in favor of the reality of the phenomena.  His findings are described in my post here.  To the great embarrassment of Darwinists, the co-founder of the theory of evolution by natural selection (Alfred Russel Wallace) began to write at length in support of the reality of the spiritual manifestations that Darwinists regarded as impossible. Some of his statements are summarized in my post here. 

Prediction #5 of Darwinist Materialism: Biologists Will Discover Many Examples of Organisms With Nascent Organs That Are the Initial Stages of New Organs

If it were true that gradual random changes led to very complex visible biological innovations, then we would see all over the place (in the animal world) adult organisms with not-yet-functional biological innovations existing in rudimentary form: what can be called incipient organs, nascent organs, incipient appendages or nascent appendages.  Darwinists predicted that there would be discovered many incipient organs, nascent organs, incipient appendages or nascent appendages.

But we have seen no such thing. We do not see any adult organisms containing not-yet-functioning organs that are the initial stages of organs that will be functional in future generations. We do not see any adult organisms with not-yet-functioning appendages that are merely the initial stages of appendages that will only be functional in future generations. Inside the bodies of organisms we see no protein molecules that are presently useless but which are the first half or the first third of some molecule that will be highly functional in future generations.  

The point that I make here was forcibly made in pages 24-26 of Douglas Dewar's book Difficulties of the Evolution Theory.  Dewar states this: 

"Better evidence of the assertion that for the last fifty years biological textbooks bring to light only that which is favourable to evolution and pass over unnoticed all that is unfavourable could scarcely be adduced than the fact that these volumes contain many references to vestigial organs, but none to nascent organs....Thus, although the anatomy of thousands of species of animals has been carefully studied, it is impossible to adduce a single structure in any species which is indubitably or even probably in a nascent condition."

Prediction #6 of Darwinist Materialism: Within Human Cells There Will Be Found a Specification of How to Make a Human Body and Its Cells 

Darwinism always needed for there to be found within the body some kind of specification for making a body and its cells. This is because if such a thing is not true, Darwinism has no credibility. 

Here is the concept of how evolution works that has been held by Darwinists for more than 150 years. 

(1) Tenet #1: "There is some unit in a body that specifies what the result will be when that body engages in sexual reproduction with another of the same species."

(2) Tenet #2: "Random mutations may occur in such a body specification, resulting in changes in offspring that are inherited by future generations."

(3) Tenet #3: "Sometimes these mutations are favorable, resulting in an increase in survival or reproduction that tends to be passed on to future generations."

(4) Tenet #4: "The accumulation of such favorable mutations results in the evolution of new features and traits in species, or possibly entirely new species."

But what if Tenet #1 is not true? What if there is not "some unit in a body that specifies what the result will be when that body engages in sexual reproduction with another of the same species."  Then the whole scheme above pretty much falls apart. If there is no such unit, then there might still occur some microevolution (caused by changes in genetic material that merely influence the final result of reproduction, without specifying it); but there could not occur macroevolution, such as one species evolving from some vastly different ancestor with a hugely different body structure. 

So it is no surprise that Darwinists materialists long predicted that  within human cells there will be found a specification of how to make a human body and its cells.  Some of these predictions would take the form of matter-of-fact statements that made it sound as if such a thing had already been found.  In some cases, you have to be charitable to call them predictions rather than outright lies. 

An example is to be found on page 188 of the 1963 book Intelligent Life in the Universe by Carl Sagan, a book that makes frequent proclamations of Darwinist dogma. On that page we read this prediction that a specification of how to make bodies and cells will be found within cells:

"It [a cell] reproduces. How does it reproduce? Think of the enormous number of characteristics which familiar animals have. There is the gross anatomy, the overall architecture of the organism. Then, there is the physiology, the dynamic functioning and articulation of the different parts of the organism in carrying out its functions. It has inherited behavior patterns -- how to build a nest, how to bury a bone. It has ten trillion or so cells, each one of which is itself an enormously complex structure. At the present time, we are making only the first fumbling steps towards assembling a cell from scratch. Yet the information to construct the entire organism is somehow contained in the genetic material, because, with striking regularity, animals look like their parents." 

DNA had not yet been cataloged, and no trace of anatomy information had been found in it when Sagan wrote these words. Sagan had no business making such a claim in a matter-of-fact matter.  Being charitable, we can call this a prediction of what would be found, rather than a lie. 

Another example occurred in 1991 when evolutionary biologist Ernst Mayr stated on this page 150 of one of his books, "The genetic program does not by itself supply the building material of new organisms, but only the blueprint for making the phenotype."  At the time this was written, no observations had been made justifying such a claim. But there was a Human Genome Project going on which would not be completed for 10 years. So if we wanted to speak charitably, we can call this a prediction of what would occur (rather than an outright lie). 

In 2001 the Human Genome Project was completed. The entire human genome had been cataloged. No trace of anatomy information was found in DNA or its genes. No such information has been found as of the year 2026.  DNA has no information on how to build bodies, organ systems, organs or cells. DNA does not even specify how to make the organelles that are the building components of cells. The prediction of Darwinist materialists that within human cells there will be found a specification of how to make a human body and its cells was a prediction that was dead wrong. 

Prediction #7 of Darwinist Materialism: Scientists Will Produce Artificial Life Between the Year 1980 and the Year 2000

The underestimation of the degree of complexity and organization in living organisms has been a continual feature of Darwinist materialism. A 1964 report of the Rand Corporation documents such a reality. A large group of about 80 experts (largely Darwinist materialists) were asked when there would occur "creation of a primitive form of artificial life (at least in the form of self-replicating molecules)." Many of these experts gave estimates between 1980 and the year 2000. It is now 2026, and no such thing has happened. 

Prediction #8 of Darwinist Materialism: Scientists Will Produce Drugs to Produce Permanent Increases in Intelligence, Between the Year 1984 and the Year 2023

Darwinist materialists believe that the mind is merely the product of the brain, or perhaps the same thing as the brain. This leads them to predict it will be relatively easy to permanently increase intelligence merely by using drugs or genetic modification. A 1960's report of the Rand Corporation questioned a large group of about 80 experts (largely Darwinist materialists), and one of the questions asked was when there would occur "drugs to raise the level of intelligence (other than as dietary supplements and not in sense of just temporarily raising the level of apperception)."  We read on page 12 of the document that the experts on the first panel (called Panel 1) estimated that this would occur between the year 1984 and the year 2023. There still are no such drugs. There are drugs that temporarily improve alertness or concentration, but no drugs that make a person permanently smarter. 

Prediction #8 of Darwinist Materialism: Scientists Will Produce Increased Human Intelligence by Linking Brains Directly With Computers, Between the Year 1986 and the Year 2024

Darwinist materialists believe that the mind is merely the product of the brain, or perhaps the same thing as the brain. This leads them to predict it will be possible to enhance human minds by directly linking brains with computers. A 1960's report of the Rand Corporation questioned a large group of about 80 experts (largely Darwinist materialists), and one of the questions asked was when there would occur "man-machine symbiosis, enabling man to extend his intelligence by direct electromechanical interaction between his brain and a computing machine."  As shown on Page 12 of the document, all but one of the experts on Panel 1 predicted that this would occur by the year 2023, with most of those on Panel 1 predicting that it would occur by the year 2015. No such thing has happened, and there are strong reasons for thinking it can never happen. In the same study different experts on a Panel 3 were asked when there would occur "man-machine symbiosis, enabling man to extend his intelligence by direct electromechanical interaction between his brain and a computing machine."  As shown on page 22 of the document, these experts predicted that such a thing would occur between 1986 and 2028, with almost all of them predicting that it would occur before 2025. No such thing has happened, and there are strong reasons for thinking it can never happen.

Prediction #9 of Darwinist Materialism: It Will Be Possible to Educate People by Direct Recording on the Brain  With This Probably Occurring Between the Year 1997 and the Year 2024

Darwinist materialists believe that the mind is merely the product of the brain, or perhaps the same thing as the brain. This leads them to predict it will be possible to upload knowledge into brains, like someone copying data into a computer. A 1960's report of the Rand Corporation questioned a large group of about 80 experts (largely Darwinist materialists), and one of the questions asked was when there would occur "education by direct information recording on the brain."  As shown on Page 12 of the document, most of the experts on Panel 1 predicted that this would occur by the year 2024, with the experts saying it would happen between 1997 and the year 2024. No such thing has happened, and there are strong reasons for thinking it can never happen.  would occur before 2025. No such thing has happened, and there are strong reasons for thinking it can never happen.